My research examines environmental lobbying under authoritarian rule, specifically, how environmental interest groups (EIGs) adapt their strategies and framing to gain influence in autocracies, and how their presence relates to environmental policy outcomes under these contexts. I approach these questions using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, including synthetic control methods, multiple imputation, qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), and game-theoretic formulations. I am also confortable with survey work, Futures Studies, and multivariate inferential statistics.

More broadly, I am interested in questions of democratic backsliding, executive aggrandizement, and horizontal and vertical accountability in comparative institutional settings.

WORK IN PROGRESS

Please email me for the manuscript if you are interested in any of the outputs below.

Molinero Junior, G. R. “Disaggregating Features of Environmental Interest Groups’ Influence Across Autocratic Types”. Working paper, Central European University, forthcoming.

Molinero Junior, G. R. “Democracy Without Democrats: Historical Narratives and the Risks of Agency-less Systemic Thinking”. Working Column, DPolitik, forthcoming.

JOURNAL ARTICLES

Molinero Junior, G. R. & De Sousa Rabelo, R. F. 2021. “Antropoceno e a práxis da temporalidade negativa: um estudo sobre a inação“. Fronteira 20(40): 71-87. [Eng: Anthropocene and the praxis of negative temporality: a study on inaction]

BOOK CHAPTERS

Molinero Junior, G. R. 2021. “Comparativo das potencialidades explicativas da teoria Decolonial e aquelas das teorias mainstream das Relações Internacionais acerca do common global ambiental no chuthulucene”. 93-114. In Borges da Rocha, P. H. & Quadros de Magalhães, J. L.;Teixeira, S. G. Decolonialidade a partir do Brasil: Vol.VI. Editora Dialética: São Paulo. ISBN: 978-65-252-1936-3. [Eng: Comparison of the explanatory potential of Decolonial theory and those of mainstream theories of International Relations regarding global environmental commons in the Chuthulucene]

Molinero Junior, G. R. 2020. “O jardim de Cândido na tragédia do Antropoceno”. 52-65. In De Matos Magalhaes, E.; Antonione Rodrigues, J. & Ferreira Bina Junior, R. Direito e Literatura: Perspectivas Interdisciplinares. Espaço Acadêmico: Goiânia, Goiás. ISBN: 978-65-00-08556-3 [Eng: Candide’s garden in the tragedy of the Anthropocene]

Martinho Kieling, M. E. & Molinero Junior, G. R. 2016. “Desculpe o transtorno, estamos tornando a América grande novamente”. 187-190. In Lustosa Victor, R. & Corrêa Tomazini, R. Relações Internacionais: reflexões e debates. Espaço Acadêmico: Goiânia, Goiás. ISBN: 978-85-69818-58-8. [Eng: Sorry for the inconvenience, we are making America great again]

Molinero Junior, G. R. & Martinho Kieling, M. E. 2016. “EUA x Brasil: saúde como um Direito Humano”. 197-199. In Lustosa Victor, R. & Corrêa Tomazini, R. Relações Internacionais: reflexões e debates. Espaço Acadêmico: Goiânia, Goiás. ISBN: 978-85-69818-58-8. [Eng: USA vs Brazil: healthcare as a human right]

PEER-REVIEWED POLICY PUBLICATIONS AND REPORTS

Molinero Junior, G. R. 2026. “Schooling the Republic: Education, Path Dependence, and Democratic Resilience in Austria“. Commentary. Austrian Institute for International Affairs (oiip). 

Späth, J., & Molinero Junior, G. 2025. “Infrastructural capture: How Big Tech’s dependency loop is reshaping American statecraft” (Policy Analysis No. 13/2025). Austrian Institute for International Affairs (oiip).

CONFERENCE PAPERS

Molinero Junior, G. R. 2023. “Democratic Processes and Institutional Designs: A Comparative Study of EU and ASEAN”. In the EU Enlargement, Geopolitics, and the Russian-Ukraine War conference. Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Belgrade.

Molinero Junior, G. R. & Ilmari Helin, N. J. 2021. “Comparative Theoretical-Conceptual Perspectives For Climate Change”. In the GT3 – Empresas, Direitos Humanos e Desenvolvimento Sustentável of the Conferência Internacional Cátedra Jean Monnet. FECAP University.

Ilmari Helin, N. J. & Molinero Junior, G. R. 2021. “Democratic Deficit in the European Union: Insulating to Protect”. In the GT1 – Políticas Europeias e Déficit Democrático of the Conferência Internacional Cátedra Jean Monnet. FECAP University.

Molinero Junior, G. R. 2020. “Descarte de Lixo Eletrônico e suas Consequências para o Direito Internacional e o Comércio Internacional”. In the annals of the 26th Congress of Scientific initiation at the University of Brasilia. [Eng: E-Waste Disposal and its Consequences for International Law and International Trade]

MEDIA COVERAGE

From 2025 onwards I have been a regular columnist at DPolitik. There you can find my published pieces in both English and Portuguese on various topics such as environmental politics, authoritarianism, and democratic theory.